Games 21-37/82
Golden State Warriors record: 17-20
Washington Wizards record: 6-31
One of the things I have grown to appreciate about the Wizards is how much less media there is about them - the advantage of not being successful. They can just be. Figure things out. They aren’t under a constant spotlight. Every little interaction isn’t on display, analyzed and examined in all its minutiae. So far there have been multiple times this year when the Dubs fan base has talked about trading Looney, Klay, Wiggins, CP3, Kuminga, Moody and firing Kerr- essentially everyone except for Curry and the rookies. It’s a constant roller coaster. It’s exhausting and hard to resist.
This much seems true. The Warriors are even more mediocre than they were last year at this point in time. The record is similar but the details are different. Last year was an overreliance on two-way players Ty Jerome and Anthony Lamb. This year is a complete dependence on rookies Podz and Jackson-Davis, who are playing better than Jerome and Lamb did last year but still, they are rookies. And the inexplicable fall-off of Looney and Wiggins. And the disappearance of Draymond who has only played in 15 of 37 games. The Warriors front office doubled down on the starting five of Curry, Klay, Dray, Looney and Wiggins, which was the most effective starting five in the NBA last year, and they are all worse this year. No one could have predicted that they would each have a decline or that they would be in slumps at the same time. To be fair, Curry mostly looks tired, especially in the absence of Draymond, and Klay is actually playing fairly well but since his role has changed, the metrics for playing well have also changed.
This team is capable of greatness–the third quarter of the most recent Nuggets game was a reminder of what it can look like. But more often, they are capable of blunder upon blunder. Two key pieces of their game are missing - someone who can keep things in shape defensively and get balls to Steph offensively and someone who can be the #2 shooter, who can get to the basket on their own. It is not lost on me that they are missing the skills of Draymond Green and Jordan Poole.
This has been the situation more and more often. Steph surrounded, Klay guarded and three Dubs on offense that no one needs to pay much attention to. This situation is untenable. And this is on the offensive side where the Warriors are much better.
Sometimes they can make up for that with youthful energy and sometimes they look old and tired and lately even tired of trying. In the last two home games the Warriors have been booed. In their post-game pressers, both Steph and Looney agreed with the fans, saying they deserved it and had given fans nothing to cheer about.
Last post I wrote about that idea of staying where your feet are - Poole’s mantra for how he is approaching this year. Perhaps that’s easier to do when you have moved to a different location. Recognizing that things have changed when you are still in the same place is harder to adjust to. The players are the same - but they have changed, the times have changed, the league is filled with young tall multiple wing teams who tear the Warriors to shreds. Draymond will come back, but there are no promises that he will stay on the court.
I would love to say that they can win without Draymond. I would love to not give him that power. But it’s not true. And the Warriors are capable of winning in spurts. They can get up for a big game (the Celtics), they can win against teams not as good as them (Trail Blazers, Wizards) but teams that are tough for them, they either struggle (the Heat) or they have no answers at all (Luka).
I have no answers either except that I’m super sad about the likely trajectory. I don’t like change and players leaving is hard for me. I don’t even like it when they change their hair. The idea of Wiggins or Moody (and others) getting traded soon breaks my heart. Wiggins and Moody are really good eggs.
Other random thoughts on my mind:
Podz is going to have to either level up or play less - his baby hook is getting predictable and now that he starts, other teams will be onto him. He also needs to stop driving into the paint without a plan.
Tracye is a revelation of what the Warriors hoped would happen with Wiseman but just couldn’t be. I get it. Those passes to an open center - aggressive rebounding, rim protection - those are things I’m not used to and love to see.
I continue to wonder about the impact of players playing more games with the new rest rules. Yes, we are seeing players in a lot more games (which is better in theory for the fan). Especially true on the back to backs. But they might need rest. Or at least some compromise between seeing four starters on the sidelines resting and what we’ve got now.
I am growing to like the ragtag band of players called the Washington Wizards. I am not trying to get too attached because they are also likely to have massive roster changes in a few weeks. Bilal Coulibaly, Corey Kispert, DeLon Wright, Daniel Gafford - they don’t win much but I like watching them figure it out. (Of course I like watching Poole play but you already know that).
I’m recalibrating my expectations for this season. I’m watching two teams who are weirdly similar, with different ceilings for their potential. Both are lacking defense. Both give away 20 point leads with turnovers and mental errors. Both depend on high scoring. Both are best in a transition game. Both have a bench squad that can get them back into games. Both do not have set rotations yet. Both have rookies who are better than they could have hoped for. Both are missing a #2 player (the Wizards don’t even have a clear #1 yet). The difference is that right now the Wizards are getting better and the Warriors are in an eddy, circling around the same issues, hoping the water will spin them out of the spiral they are in.
A reminder that the 21-22 Warriors were not the better team at several points in the playoffs. They weren’t the better team in the finals - the Celtics were - but they were the team that could find a way to win. They took their pieces and put them together. A team has to be good enough to be in the conversation. And then you have to be gritty enough to want it more. You have to be scrappy. You have to have more energy. You need a small amount of luck. (See: 2023 Miami Heat). The same is true in a lot of these games. The Warriors are not the better team in more games than not. And yet they should be able to win most individual games. They have had very little luck - or at least a lot of injuries - now with Chris Paul, GPII and Moody, that have really hurt them on the defensive end (along with Dray’s nonsense). But it’s hard to be lucky with older players. The Dubs of this week are not gritty or scrappy and I hate to say it, are not good enough to be in the conversation.
It wasn’t the worst idea to try to run it back with the same crew. That’s what the Michigan Wolverines just did in their National Championship with their seniors of last year banding together and returning. And when you do it - it feels exhilarating. All we need is the team! All we need is hard work and belief! It feels both like it was meant to be and the impossible dream. Hail to the Victors Valiant!
But the Wolverines were undefeated at the midpoint of the season and the Dubs are sub .500.
Since the Warriors are regrouping, I’m going to as well. My resolution was to watch every Warriors and Wizards game and write about it, as a source of joy. A few months in and it’s not quite turning out that way–it’s the stage where the resolution gets hard. It’s been both dreary and constant to watch all these games (kinda like a Michigan sky in winter). Along the way, I forgot the third part, the writing about it. Writing about it is fun even when watching is a drag. And at heart, I’m a believer, so I believe. I believe the Wizards coach will see the value of Poole playing point guard, get him more on-ball, and get him facilitating the offense. Of course I believe in Steph but also in Klay, in GPII, in Moody, in Kuminga, in Wiggins, for however long they remain on the team. I believe the trade deadline is going to be an emotion-filled day for me. Basketball is a game and a season of streaks. I believe at any moment now things could change.
The Timeout Books: (books I read during the timeouts and halftimes)
A Game At A Time Playlist (the songs that pop in my head while writing this)
Tracy Chapman Fast Car
Janet Jackson Don’t Know What You’ve Got Til It’s Gone
Joni Mitchell never lies.